Worth a shot... literally.

Geographers Find Bin Laden — Theoretically - TierneyLab Blog - NYTimes.com

Parachinar.  If Osama Bin Laden was an endangered species of wildlife, he'd be hiding in Parachinar.

"So why hasn’t anyone claimed the $50 million bounty on his head?"

Thomas Gillespie at U.C.L.A. thinks we've been looking in the wrong place:

"The theory of island biogeography states that large and close islands will have higher immigration rates and support more species with lower extinction rates than small isolated islands.

These theories can be applied over varying spatial scales to posit bin Laden’s current location based on his last reputed geographic location. Distance-decay theory would predict that he is closest to the point where he was last reported and, by extension, within a region that has a similar physical environment and cultural composition (that is, similar religious and political beliefs)."

I'm deeply skeptical that this method is more accurate than the combined force of greed (from the reward) and actual boots on the ground (CIA, FBI).  But, who knows.  It does make some sense to think of fugitives as hunted animals after all.  

Maybe there are some predator-prey models they could try out next?